Most Overvalued Players:  PPR Leagues

19 Aug, 2015

When it comes to calling a player overvalued, the way your league scores points has a big impact.  In the standard league overvalued list, there were mostly wide receivers and tight ends.  Points Per Reception leagues (PPR) give a point for every reception made by these players, so the end up scoring significantly more points.  You’ll see that this list has mostly Running Backs, but there are still some WR and TEs to stay away from.  Let’s start at the top:

#1    Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch.  In most drafts, these guys are going to be gone within the first 5 picks.  However, if you are in a PPR league, you should stay away from these players.  Lynch is only the 19th best player in PPR and Lacy is 20th.  Does this mean they are bad players?  Absolutely not, it just means that these guys are not the best choices when it comes to your first pick.  You want a back that will also be a prolific pass catcher, like Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson or Le’Veon Bell.   Also, in PPR receivers crowd the top of the list so you can always nab Antonio Brown or Demaryius Thomas.

#2    DeMarco Murray (ADP 13.3, value 26).  Most projections are showing a steep decline in Murray’s production.  Instead of being the center of the offense, he becomes part of an ensemble in Philly.  I also think it’s not hard to argue that going from Romo to Bradford is a big step down in the QB department.  These early picks are just so critical and you don’t want to spend your 2nd round pick on a 3rd round guy.  Unfortunately, the second round running backs are all in a similar situation.  Only Matt Forte looks like a good choice if you insist on getting a RB.  Likewise, you can go the Wide Receiver route (Julio Jones is a top 10 option in PPR) or take an elite QB (both Luck and Rodgers should be available).

#3    Jimmy Graham (ADP 29.7, Value 74).  I can’t emphasize enough the dangerous illusion surrounding Jimmy Graham this season.  In Standard Leagues he’s overvalued by over 50 spots!  Even in PPR that gap only shrinks to 45 slots.  Again, his projected value is only slightly better than someone like Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen who can be gotten two whole rounds later.  I think Jimmy Graham is a contender for the most overvalued player this season regardless of how your league scores points.  As an alternative, why not take Emmanuel Sanders (ADP 34.9)?  His projected value is 2nd round and you can get him with a late 3rd round pick!

#4    Melvin Gordon – RB (ADP 29.7, value 84).  Now, I’m never too keen on picking an untested rookie this early, but in PPR you need to stay away from this guy.  It’s funny how such a slight change can take a player from fair value in standard leagues and drops him more than 50 spots for PPR.   Like Jimmy Graham above, you’d be in much better shape grabbing Emmanuel Sanders (ADP 34.9, value 18).  If he’s gone,  DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 34.5, value 30) or Kelvin Benjamin (ADP 35.6, value 29) will give you fair value for your pick.  FYI – Frank Gore (ADP 33.8, value 85) and Joseph Randle (ADP 36, value 86) are in the same boat with being overvalued.  Why not grab Mark Ingram (ADP 38, value 43) or Alfred Morris (ADP 38.6, value 53) instead?

#5    Andre Johnson (ADP 41.9, value 67) and Martavis Bryant (ADP 47.8, value 78).  It was not surprising seeing these guys on the standard points overvalued list, but you can see even with the PPR bonus, these guys are still severely overvalued.  There are plenty of better options when it comes to the 5th round that will get you good value for your pick including Jordan Matthews (ADP 46.6, Value 41) or Julian Edelman (ADP 53.6, Value 32).

Author: Xynergy