When it comes to the draft, you need to avoid overvalued players like the plague. Overvalued players can destroy your team because you spent a 4th round pick for a 7th round performance. The draft is all about sentiment and certain players are carrying a premium because the general opinion is unusually high about the prospects surrounding a certain player. Avoid these players at all costs unless they somehow fall to more reasonable levels.
Because this is a standard league, not PPR, this list is loaded with pass catchers. However, most of the pass catchers in the top 60 players are reasonably priced or just a little overvalued. These are the most overvalued
- Jimmy Graham - TE (ADP 29.7, Projected value 86). I swear there is some cognitive dissonance happening because Jimmy Graham is being priced like Drew Brees is still tossing him balls. Seattle is a run first offense, Russell Wilson passed 200 fewer times than Drew Brees did in 2014. Less passes mean less targets for Graham which means his production will decline significantly on this new team. Jimmy Graham has even stated that 75% of the time he’s going to be in run blocking schemes! Now it’s not that Jimmy is going to have a bad season, I fully expect him to get you 1000+ yards and 10 touchdowns, but when you need to consider the fact that he’s only going to get you marginally more points that someone like Greg Olson or Travis Kelce who are going a full two rounds later. Likewise, you’re going to pass on players like MikeEvans, Emmanuel Sanders or Kelvin Benjamin who will all give you more points for your team.
- DeAndre Hopkins – WR (ADP 34.5, Projected Value 50). Although the Gap between ADP and projected value is much less than some of the others on this list, you’re making a mistake if you take him in the 4th round. My biggest problem with taking DeAndre this early is the fact that Houston doesn’t have a good situation at quarterback. You also have to throw in the fact that Arian Foster is going to miss the first half of the season and defenses are going to be able to key in on him more than last year. Like Jimmy Graham above, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin or Brandon Cooks are much better options.
- Andre Johnson - WR (ADP 41.9, Projected value 82). In Andre’s case, it appears that most people are thinking that Andrew Luck is going to pull down a Peyton Manning 2013 performance (5,000+ yards and 55 Touchdowns). Certainly the addition of Johnson and RB Frank Gore are positives for the offense, but there is no way his expected production warrants a 5th round pick! Truthfully, everyone on the Colts is overvalued right now, but Johnson is the most overvalued. Actually, I’m not too keen on WRs in the 4th round, but there are some great options at RB in this round like Alfred Morris, Carlos Hyde and Mark Ingram which would be much better options for your team.
- Martavis Bryant – WR (ADP 47.2, Projected Value 97). Here is another example of sentiment being much too high on a high powered offense. Martavis didn’t start playing until week7 last season and he put in some great performances, but sentiment is far outstripping what the experts are projecting. One thing’s for sure, he’s going to have to far outperform in order to justify taking him in the 5th round. Why not instead take proven commodities like Julian Edelman, Golden Tate or Keenan Allen?
- Brandon Marshall – WR (ADP 52.1, Projected value 78). I’m not sure why Marshall is still commanding such high sentiment in the draft. Certainly the Quarterback situation in New York is not great right now and it will probably be Fitzpatrick tossing him balls. I think sentiment is that Fitzpatrick will be able to duplicate what he did with DeAndre Hopkins last year (1,200 yards and 6 touchdowns) but the Jets don’t have a prolific back like Houston did to draw defenses away. Certainly the options listed for Martavis Bryant above are good alternatives for this player.